Regardless of the price of a barrel of crude oil in the future, one thing is certain: the world-wide demand for petroleum will continue to increase. According to Kenneth D. Rose, from Concawe, the demand will increase from 300 million tons per year today to close to 500 million tons by 2020! 300 million tons per year equate to one billion litres per day, a volume equivalent to the mass of the Eiffel Tower! However, between now and 2020, the demand for diesel fuel for commercial transportation and heavy trucks will explode. By contrast, the demand for both gasoline and diesel for private transportation will drop. Therefore the automobile is being directed to other routes for power sources. This trend is irreversible and many new solutions are available now.

 

The goal of the automobile industry is clear: it must drastically reduce CO2 emissions; not only to lessen the impact on the environment, but also to cope with the density of traffic in cities. Urban traffic is projected to grow enormously between now and 2020-2050. Specialists, such as Pierpaolo Cazzola from the IEA, predict that the combustion engine will continue to exist during that period. This will be the case in spite of declining reserves of oil coupled and increasing availability of more environmentally friendly modes of propulsion. To supply this growing population of vehicles, we absolutely need to use electricity as an alternative, and to produce sufficient electricity, we must turn more towards clean energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar power. This “clean” energy will contribute to the ultimate goal of all research: to achieve a reduction of CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. However, electricity is more a long term solution; natural gas, biogas and second generation bio-ethanol (which does not compete with food sources) will play a role already in the near future. The use of natural gas vehicles has indeed come of age. More and more automobile manufacturers are providing vehicles specially adapted to run on the high octane (130) natural gas. Peter Boisen from NGVA Europe explains that the EU should introduce legislation demanding that member states secure an adequate natural gas/biomethane refuelling infrastructure. This could mean, for example, that multi-fuel stations above a certain size, or with a certain market share, should be required to provide natural gas refuelling. Peter Boisen is convinced that natural gas vehicles have a brilliant future and will contribute to reduce CO2-emissions and air-pollution already within the next 10-15 years.

In addition, there is another interesting possible solution. Developed in New Zealand and presented by Ben Keet, this consists of an emulsion of recycled oil and water which provides amazing energy capabilities with considerably fewer pollutants than conventional diesel.

 

The energy distribution network must be extended to meet future electricity requirements. As Philippe Méan from Alpiq pointed out, this is a challenge that the producers of electric power must take up. For automobile manufacturers the main problem they face with the provision of electric vehicles can be summed up in one word: batteries! The key to success lies in the creation of lightweight storage devices which are safe and capable of holding enough energy to give electric vehicles the same travel range as today’s vehicles. There are several possible ways to achieve this. For example, should we move towards using lithium-ion batteries? Or use the nickel metal-hydride? Or possibly replace the lithium with sodium, which is more widely available and less costly? The debate remains open, even though the lithium-ion option seems to be the most popular at the moment with automobile manufacturers. The only certainty is that the batteries of the future must ensure that they meet all safety requirements as well as provide a solution to the problem of the time it takes to be charged. Today’s so-called “rapid” charges – 30 minutes for an 80% recharge, against 7 hours for a “slow” charge to 100% - can eventually damage the battery and reduce it’s charge capacity in the long term.

 

The new Toyota Prius provides leading edge technology in integrating advanced solutions, such as a roof containing a solar panel which contributes to the electricity supply of the car. But it is Honda, with its Insight model, which has taken a further decisive step by launching a hybrid at a more affordable price. How can they do that? Of course, from its concept, the car was developed to be propelled by alternative modes of energy. More importantly, it uses simple components, which were kept to a minimum number to enable a low price while improving quality. The resulting vehicle is practical, functional, efficient and fun to drive. This could contribute greatly to “democratising” hybrid automobiles and may change the buying scenario described by Peter De Haan from ETHZ. His study depicts today’s hybrid buyer as being highly educated and being mainly driven by ecological buying goals. This buyer does not have to be convinced since he is already certain of his choice.

 

Mitsubishi and Nissan, who are in a tight race to become the first major manufacturer to commercialise a mass-produced electric car, are close to reaching their goal. Most of the technological and technical questions have been resolved, with only some details remaining to be addressed. These include whether to sell the car at a higher price with batteries included, or to sell the car at a current price but then lease the battery system separately. At the moment, the debate remains open. Meanwhile, in their laboratories, researchers are developing further evolutions. An example was given by Marco Piffaretti, who presented the LAMPO, a prototype with two electric motors that optimise the recuperation of a maximum of energy, and which uses an autonomous charging station supplied by solar energy.

The short and long term future of the automobile is electric power. Electricity providers and automobile manufacturers must therefore work together to overcome the challenges of producing and distributing the energy necessary for these future vehicles. Also key is the need to continue improving existing engines and integrating alternative sources like natural gas and bio-ethanol. This was the conclusion offered by Philipp Dietrich, from the Paul Scherrer Institute and President of the IAMF Organising Committee. Another key point was made by Maurizio Maggiore from the European Commission, who said: “The recent decision by the European Commission to reduce to 95g/km the amount of CO2 produced by 2020, which resulted in the strategy of 20-20-20 (20% reduction of greenhouse gasses – 20% greater efficiency – 20% more renewable energy in the total energy mix) represents the most formidable challenge for the future ever faced by the automobile industry”. Mr. Maggiore added: “Economic crisis or not, we cannot allow technological development to be stopped, since an environmental crisis is unfolding. Therefore, either for ecological reasons or for strictly opportunistic considerations of energy security, it is clear that the “green” vehicle’s time has come and is here to stay! The only thing that remains to be determined is what will be produced and put onto the market. The USA has already learned that pursuing technologies of the past is a high risk strategy.”

The IAMF conferences and round tables were followed by 200 participants from around the world. Next year, the IAMF will take place from March 9-10, 2010 in the Congress Center of GENEVA PALEXPO and during the Geneva International Motor Show. The emphasis will be put on technologies for “clean” high performance vehicles.

Geneva, March 18, 2009                                               (approx. 8‘300 characters including spaces)